Thursday, January 26, 2006
THOMAS SPENCER
Birmingham News staff writer
Rival political operatives, Democrat John Anzalone and
Republican Dax Swatek, agreed Wednesday that races for governor and the
Legislature will be competitive this year, but they didn't agree on much else
while speaking to the Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama's Roundtable.
Anzalone, of
Anzalone-Liszt Research, is a consultant to Lt. Gov., Lucy Baxley, who is
seeking the Democratic nomination for governor. Swatek, of Dax Swatek &
Associates, is a consultant to Gov. Bob Riley, who is seeking re-election.
The two spar
publicly during election years. Both described with glee the ethical issues
afflicting the opposite party.
Anzalone
argued that the scandal whirling around Washington lobbyist Jack Abramoff and
former U.S. House majority leader Tom DeLay will affect the Alabama elections,
regardless of whether there is any connection to Riley. "Voters are
incredibly angry, and they are angry at Republicans," he said.
Swatek said
Alabama voters would be more concerned with local issues and, on that front,
one of the Democratic contenders is under indictment. Former Gov. Don Siegelman
is scheduled for trial the month before the primary. "The candidate who
leads in most polls is under indictment," Swatek said.
"It's an
embarrassing situation for Democrats," Anzalone said. "I wish he
would just go away."
Meanwhile,
though, Riley has given Baxley the opportunity to cast herself as the protector
of the Education Trust Fund, Anzalone said. The trust has $1 billion more to
spend this year than last, and Riley has proposed a tax cut, along with a
teacher pay raise and a school construction campaign. Anzalone said voters will
see Riley's proposed tax cuts as an election-year gimmick, since just a few
years ago Riley was saying the state needed to raise taxes.
"You
can't be a tax-raiser and come back a few years latter and be a
tax-cutter," Anzalone said. Baxley will use her position presiding over
the state Legislature to cast herself as the guardian of sound, long-term
financial management, he said.
"She is going to be the protector of Education Trust Fund dollars," Anzalone said.
But Swatek
said she will, instead, be cast as doing the bidding of the state teachers
union. "She becomes the protector of special interests and Dr. Paul
Hubbert," the union's executive director.
Before a
Riley-Baxley contest is even possible, the two face challenges within their own
parties.
Anzalone said
Riley's even having a challenge suggests he is vulnerable. However, polling
hasn't shown former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore making gains.
Anzalone said
he thinks Riley will win the Republican nomination, but the contest could force
him to spend his time running to the right: "I think Riley beats Moore.
The danger for Riley is that he'll always have to keep an eye on Moore. The
best thing he can do is ignore him."
The indictment factor:
The Democratic primary is complicated by the Siegelman
trial. Despite the charges against him, Siegelman enjoys strong support in the
black community, which makes up a significant portion of the state Democratic
Party's primary voters.
Black voters
have traditionally unified behind candidates endorsed by political
organizations, though in recent elections that pattern has been breaking down.
It remains to be seen whether Siegelman can hold onto his allies in leadership
of those organizations. "We have a base in the party that votes in a very
different way," Anzalone said.
While media
attention will focus on the governor's race, some of the most contested and
expensive races will be in the state Senate, Swatek and Anzalone agreed.
A handful of
those Senate contests could see $1 million spent between the two candidates, as
business interests, trial lawyers and other players contend for control of the
closely divided chamber.
E-mail: tspencer@bhamnews.com